After a slight deceleration in growth during the last half of 2013, PKF Hospitality Research is forecasting very strong gains in revenues and profits for the U.S. lodging industry in 2014 and 2015.
According to PKF’s December edition of Hotel Horizons, U.S. RevPAR is projected to increase by 6.6% in 2014, followed by another 7.5% boost in 2015 while hotel profits will increase 12.8% and 14.5% respectively over the next two years.
“As anticipated, RevPAR growth slowed down a bit in 2013 compared to the previous three years,” said R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF Hospitality Research. “Entering the year, we knew fears of falling off the fiscal cliff would create uncertainty in the minds of potential travelers. As the year progressed, the sequester and government shutdown caused additional angst. However, despite the challenging economic environment, we observed above average growth in lodging demand, ADR, RevPAR and profits.”
PKF estimates that by year-end 2013, lodging demand will grow by 2.1%. This is greater than the projected 0.8% increase in supply, thus resulting in a 1.3% gain in occupancy. The 62.1% occupancy level estimated for the year surpasses the long-run average of 61.9% as reported by STR.
“Our firm’s forecast for nominal ADR growth in 2013 is 3.9%. Given the fact that occupancy levels have finally eclipsed the long-run average, some hoteliers were expecting even greater rate growth. Clearly this is the one measure that was impacted most by the economic uncertainty that characterized 2013,” said Woodworth. “Industry participants need to temper their disappointment, though. As we have noted in the past, hotels have been achieving highly desirable, real ADR growth during this low inflationary environment. We also should note that evidence of greater future demand from meeting planners will lend tensile strength to revenue manager’s enhanced pricing power in 2014.”
Economic improvement
While the enjoyment of U.S. hotel owners and operators may have been restrained in 2013, they should be jubilant the next two years. PKF’s lodging forecasts are driven by economic projections provided by Moody’s Analytics. According to Moody’s, 2014 is showing all the signs of being a “breakout year.”
“We are very encouraged by Moody’s outlook for the national economy in 2014,” said John Corgel, PhD., the Robert C. Baker professor of real estate at the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration and senior advisor to PKF Hospitality Research. “As lodging forecasters, it is our role to interpret the economic variables provided by Moody’s and produce projections of hotel performance. Moody’s has identified certain economic factors that we believe will have a very positive impact on the growth of lodging demand and room rates over the next few years.”
The following statements highlight Moody’s current outlook for the economy in 2014 and beyond:
- Accelerating job growth should allow the U.S. to reach full employment in three years
- Debt burdens have fallen, businesses are flush with cash, and profit margins are strong
- Confidence has been the missing ingredient, but signs point to stronger investor and consumer sentiment
“Of course, there are still some potential obstacles that we will be monitoring. The continuing brinksmanship between Congress and the executive branch perpetuates economic uncertainty. Also, it will be interesting to see how the Federal Reserve acts as the economy improves, and they unwind the monetary stimulus enacted during the depths of the recession,” Corgel observed.
Based on Moody’s projections for GDP, income and employment growth in 2014, PKF is forecasting lodging demand to grow by 3% along with a 1.8% rise in supply. The net result is a 1.8% gain in occupancy, accompanied by a 4.8% increase in ADR.
Location, location
Given the strong outlook for U.S. lodging performance, investment and development interest is high. “The relatively strong recovery of luxury, upper-upscale and upscale hotels located within the nation’s major markets has been well documented. Therefore, it has not been surprising that these property types are attracting the greatest interest. Now we are seeing our clients starting to focus on what areas to invest and/or build their upper-priced hotels within these strong markets,” Woodworth said.
Since 2009, PKF has been forecasting the performance of six location categories. The location classifications as defined by STR are airport, interstate, resort, small town/metro, suburban and urban. Just as has been observed within the chain-scales, the recovery patterns among the different location categories have varied since 2009. As of year-end 2013, PKF-HR estimates the only location groupings to have returned to their pre-recession peak levels of occupancy will be airport and urban hotels.
“Urban hotels were the first location category to recover from the recession. While this limits their potential for additional occupancy gains, they are at a point in their respective business cycle where pricing power will dominate revenue growth. Conversely, airport hotels are just reaching their previous peak, so they are expected to continue to benefit from strong gains in both occupancy and ADR in 2014,” Woodworth said.
Among the location categories, hotels located in airport, resort and suburban areas are forecast to achieve the greatest gains in RevPAR in 2014. Lagging in RevPAR growth will be properties operating along the nation’s interstate highways and in small towns. “This is a natural progression – strong performance in the central business district leads to compression in the rest of the metro area,” Woodworth said.