May 19, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (3)

It has been a year since the first glimmerings of economic problems surfaced to the public at large. Some ignored the issue while others thought any problems would be local and limited to a small section of the housing market.

The international community assumed that this was now a global economy with the new engines of economic growth making everyone else independent of the vicissitudes of the U.S. Thus, it was glibly presumed, other nations would be immune.

It wasn’t until late in 2007 that even those with an ostrich-like mentality realized this wasn’t a problem limited to a few homeowners who had over-borrowed on mortgages aggressively offered to them by slick, commission-driven salesmen whose only motive was quantity and not quality. After all, the financial markets’ insatiable appetite for sliced, diced and packaged debt had to be assuaged l...Read More

Industries: Finance & Investment, Sales & Marketing

January 17, 2008 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

Are yesterday’s luxury brands commonplace today?

A recent book by Mark Penn compellingly argued that there are no longer a couple of mega-forces sweeping us along, instead there are micro trends—small, under-the-radar forces that involve tiny percentages of the population but which are powerfully shaping our society.

As Generations X and Y shape today’s society, they no longer seem willing to stand by and wistfully aspire to the luxury goods they see the seemingly affluent enjoying. Not content to merely shape society with Ipods, the Internet and Starbucks, they want to have their aspirational goods and experiences now, and are changing the face of retailing, merchandising and luxury products consumption. Importantly they are forcing a widening divide between the affluent and the super-affluent, as the latter want to be...Read More

October 12, 2007 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

Like a farmer searching the dusk sky for portents about tomorrow, so are we all scouring the news for snippets, signs and omens to help us understand what’s happening in the economy and how it will affect our businesses.

Is the United States going into a recession? Will the GDP be 1%, 2%, or even more next year, or might it be less? Will oil reach US$100 a barrel—and what will happen if it does? Will the Cubs win next year’s World Series? (Sorry, but like so many die-hard Cubbie fans, I would love to see them win the pennant just once before my dementia further sets in).

I am no soothsayer. I have often said that he who lives by the crystal ball inevitably ends up eating ground glass. So I won’t bother wasting your time with my forecasts of what will be. However, I’ve written before, and will repeat again here, that the global economy...Read More

September 20, 2007 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

A few years ago author Malcolm Gladwell made the case that there was a “tipping point” at which the tiniest thing could bring about dramatic societal shifts. If anyone thinks he was wrong, just reflect on how many of us ask, or are asked, questions about how sub prime mortgages could have led to a liquidity crisis leaving us worried about a slow down, down turn, or even the “R” word—recession.

A recent book by Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton’s chief strategist, (and the man that helped Bill Clinton to his 1996 victory by the ultimate wooing of soccer mums) said Micro trends offers a compelling argument that “there are no longer a couple of mega forces sweeping us along, instead there are micro trends—small under-the-radar forces that can involve as little as 1% of the population, but which are powerfully shaping our society.”

...Read More

August 17, 2007 | Link This | Email this | Comments (0)

Let’s all agree that sub prime is not a below-grade cut of meat. However, let’s also agree that we are not seeing the financial markets or the free world as we know it come to a screeching end. This is blip, a moment in time. That’s about it!

The current wave of finger pointing recriminations and hysteria over the current volatility in the financial markets isn’t healthy for anyone. Of course being fed a steady diet of ever-so-wise talking heads on TV doesn’t help calm the nerves of all of us involved in lodging real estate and finance.

I stand back and think about what it all means for our business. I wanted to get back to the underlying basics in our industry:

First:

• Lodging supply growth is still at historically low levels;
• Lodging demand is high;
• Record number of room ni...Read More