U.S. occupancy at lowest since June
U.S. weekly hotel occupancy was relatively flat from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR through November 7.
November 1-7 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
Occupancy: 44.2% (-35.9%)
ADR: US$91.40 (-31.1%)
RevPAR: US$40.36 (-55.8%)
Down slightly from 44.4% the prior week, the country’s occupancy level was its lowest since the week of June 14-20. Aggregate data for the top 25 markets showed lower occupancy (39.9%) but higher ADR (US$97.13) than all other markets. Only two of those major markets reached or surpassed 50% occupancy: Phoenix, Arizona (55.1%); and New Orleans, Louisiana (53.9%) Markets with the lowest occupancy levels for the week included Oahu Island, Hawaii (24.0%), and Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota-Wisconsin (30.0%).
Fewer Americans traveling for Thanksgiving
The U.S. holiday will be on the lighter side when it comes to the typical number of travelers on the roads and at airports, according to a new report from AAA Travel. The study shows that effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including health concerns and high unemployment, are impacting Americans’ decisions to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday. With health and government officials stressing that staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from getting sick, AAA anticipates at least a 10% drop in travel, the largest one-year decrease since the Great Recession in 2008.
Ditto Christmas: A new national survey commissioned by the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) shows that many Americans are not expected to travel this holiday seasons. Results show that 72% of Americans are unlikely to travel for Thanksgiving and 69% are unlikely to travel for Christmas, compounding the challenges for the hotel industry during this public health crisis. Business travel has been even more impacted. Only 8% of Americans say they have taken an overnight business trip since March, and just 19% of respondents who are currently employed—or 8% of all adults—expect to travel for business within the next six months. Sixty-two percent (62%) of employed Americans have no plans to stay in a hotel for business.
Full U.S. recovery still unlikely until 2024
With leisure demand stronger than anticipated in the fall, STR and Tourism Economics slightly upgraded the final 2020 U.S. hotel forecast just released during the virtual NYU Hospitality Conference. Regardless of the short-term upgrade, the forecast for 2021 remains functionally unchanged and full recovery in RevPAR is unlikely until 2024. STR and Tourism Economics project the industry will recapture 80% of demand by the end of 2021, although RevPAR will be 34.2% lower than in 2019. ADR and revenue will follow a slower recovery timeline, putting the industry on pace for full demand recovery at the end of 2023 and a return to pre-pandemic RevPAR levels by the close of 2024.
Anticipating travel recovery
A new survey on global travel habits indicates that survey respondents are putting less weight on government and public policy and more on personal risk assessment. The survey, from New York consulting firm Oliver Wyman, also shows that, despite cases being on the upswing during the survey period, some 30% of respondents in France and Italy and 25% in the United States think it’s okay to travel now. Interest in leisure travel also remains strong, with 63% expecting to travel the same amount or more post-pandemic. Half or more of leisure travel respondents in Canada, United Kingdom, France, and Germany expect their next leisure trip post-pandemic to be international.
EU rolls out ‘colors’ in attempt to reboot travel
The European Union introduced its long-planned “traffic light” system in a bid to reopen travel. But with high levels of coronavirus infections almost everywhere in the EU, the move has had little immediate effect. Data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control on the 14-day cumulative incidence rate, testing rate and testing positivity rates is used to classify countries and individual regions as green, amber or red. A fourth category, gray, applies if there is insufficient information or if the testing rate is lower than 300 per 100,000 people. This currently applies to Northern Ireland and Slovakia.
Pandemic revenue management
Greenbelt, Maryland-based hotel management company Chesapeake Hospitality has launched a new initiative to highlight the increased need across the industry for expert-level revenue management. The program titled “RevAdvantage by Chesapeake” aims to support hotel owners and operators’ revenue management needs through short- and long-term partnerships while they strategize in an industry suffering record low demand during the pandemic.
Socially distant dinner series
Ojai, California-based resort Ojai Valley Inn is launching a culinary series called The Restaurant at Meadowood Winter Residency, which will bring a socially distant Michelin-starred dinner soiree to Ojai in January and February. The residency will feature the cuisine of the 3-Michelin-star Restaurant at Meadowood; Meadowood Napa Valley was destroyed in the Glass Fire that swept through Napa Valley in September, destroying residential and commercial buildings including several hotels and wineries. The pop-up series will unfold in indoor and outdoor settings at The Farmhouse, the resort’s restaurant.
